TO THE QUESTION OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF WINTER RYE WITHIN THE AGROLANDSCAPE OF A MORAINE HILL

Ivanov, D. A.

doi:10.7868/S3034519725030125

PII

S3034519725030125-1

DOI

10.7868/S3034519725030125

Publication type

Article

Status

Published

Authors

D. A. Ivanov

Affiliation: FRC “V.V. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute”

Volume/ Edition

Volume / Issue number 3

Pages

58-64

Abstract

The yield monitoring (1998-2023) of winter rye was conducted within the moraine hill in order to find patterns in the influence of weather and landscape conditions on it. Crops were grown in the Tver region without fertilizers. It was revealed that its productivity varied from 0 to 63 c/ha. The years of research are combined into three clusters that differ in the nature of the spatial variability of the yield within the agrolandscape. The first cluster - years with cold and dry demi-season periods, the second - with warm and damp spring and autumn and dry summer, the third - with standard demi-season periods and wet summer. The maximum yield, as well as its spatial variability, was observed in the second cluster. The probability of occurrence of the climatic conditions of the first cluster is 42%, the second - 33%, the third - 25%. It is shown that changes in the climatic conditions lead to a transformation of a set of landscape factors that reliably affect the yield. For the first cluster, an increase in yield depends on stones (26%) and fine fractions (8%) in the soil, as well as on the altitude (13%). The degree of heating of the territory (3%) and soil acidity (4%) have a negative effect. For the second cluster, the yield positively depends on the sum of dust fractions (11%) and the altitude (10%), and negatively on the content of coarse dust (8%), phosphorus (4%) and the curvature of the surface (6%) in the soil. Under the conditions of the third cluster, an increase in pH (9%) has a positive effect on the yield, and a negative effect - on the altitude (22%) and the content of potassium in the soil (7%). Models have been developed that make it possible to predict the yield of a crop in the space of agrolandscapes of a terminal moraine ridge, as well as genetically close territories. Combining yield maps obtained for conditions of different clusters will allow identifying areas optimal for growing crops, as well as predicting yield variability under changing climatic conditions.

Keywords

агроландшафт мониторинг озимая рожь статистический анализ адаптивно-ландшафтные системы земледелия

Date of publication

02.06.2025

Year of publication

2025

Number of purchasers

Views

References

1. Белолюбцев А.И., Куприянов А.Н., Кузнецов И.А. и др. Средостабилизирующая роль многолетних трав в условиях современных вызовов экологического и климатического характера // АгроЭкоИнфо. 2023. № 1 (55). С. 14. https://doi.org/10.51419/202131127.
2. Иванов Д.А., Рублюк М.В. Влияние погодных и ландшафтных условий на урожайность яровой пшеницы // Зерновое хозяйство России. 2023. Т. 15. № 5. С. 70-77. https://doi.org/10.31367/2079-8725-2023-88-5-70-77
3. Кедрова Л.И., Уткина Е.И., Шамова М.Г. и др. Реализация адаптивного потенциала продуктивности озимой ржи в условиях региональных климатических изменений // АгроЭкоИнфо. 2019. № 3. С. 29. https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=41222304
4. Лебедева В.М., Найдина Т.А. Учет осенне-зимнего увлажнения почвы в динамико-статистической модели прогноза урожайности озимых культур // Гидрометеорологические исследования и прогнозы. 2022. № 4(386). С. 79-95. https://doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2022-4-79-95
5. Минаев, П.А. Анализ неиспользуемых земель сельскохозяйственного назначения России // Наука без границ. 2021. № 9 (61). С. 26-32.
6. Набатова Н.А., Уткина Е.И., Псарева Е.А. Влияние погодных условий на изменчивость селекционно ценных признаков сортов озимой ржи в условиях Кировской области. Аграрная наука Евро-Северо-Востока. 2023. № 24 (4). С. 549-561. https://doi.org/10.30766/2072-9081.2023.24.4.549-561
7. Озимая рожь. Селекционная ценность сортообразцов в условиях Волго-Вятского региона РФ (каталог). Киров: ФГБНУ ФАНЦ СевероВостока, 2024. 44 с. (Электронный ресурс). Режим доступа: http://fanc-sv.ru/uploads/ docs/2024/Озимая рожь-2024.pdf
8. Плохинский Н.А. Биометрия. М.: МГУ, 1970. 367 с.
9. Потапова Г.Н., Галимов К.А., Зобнина Н.Л. Влияние изменения климата осенью и зимой на возделывание озимой ржи // Достижения науки и техники АПК. 2019. Т. 33. № 6. C. 18-21. https://doi.org/10.24411/0235-2451-2019-10604
10. Рублюк М.В., Иванов Д.А., Карасева О.В. Влияние осушаемых агроландшафтов на свойства почвы и элементы структуры урожая озимой ржи // Плодородие. 2023. № 1 (130). С. 72-76. https://doi.org/10.25680/S19948603.2023.130.17
11. Сысуев В.А., Кедрова Л.И., Уткина Е.И. Значение озимой ржи для сохранения природного агроэкологического баланса и здоровья человека (обзор) // Теоретическая и прикладная экология. 2020. № 1. С. 14-20. https://doi.org/10.25750/1995-4301-2020-1-014-020
12. Шляхтина Е.А. Адаптивный потенциал сортов озимой ржи в условиях Кировской области // Таврический вестник аграрной науки. 2022. № 1 (29). С. 192-199.
13. Abbas F., Afzaal H., Farooque A.A. et al. Crop Yield Prediction through Proximal Sensing and Machine Learning Algorithms // Agronomy. 2020. № 10. P. 1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10071046
14. Dite P.R., Sharma N., Parvin S. et al. Cereal Grain Composition Under Changing Climate. In book: Climate Change and Crop Stress. 2022. P. 329-360. Amsterdam, the Netherlands: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-816091-6.00016-X
15. Ghafoor A.Z., Karim H., Studnicki M. et al. Climate Change and Rye (Secale cereale L.) Production: Challenges, Opportunities and Adaptations // Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science. 2024. V. 115. No. 3. P. 1114-1130. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12725
16. Herbstritt S., Richard T.L., Lence S.H. et al. Rye as an Energy Cover Crop: Management, Forage Quality, and Revenue Opportunities for Feed and Bioenergy // Agriculture. 2022. V. 12. No. 10. P. 1691. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12101691
17. Korzun V., Ponomareva M.L., Sorrells M.E. Economic and Academic Importance of Rye. In book: The Rye Genome. 2021. P. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83383-1_1
18. Plumhoff M., Connell R.K., Bressler A. et al. Management History and Mixture Evenness Affect the Ecosystem Services From Crimson Clover-Rye Cover Crop // Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environmen. 2022. V. 339. P. 108155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2022.108155
19. Rabia A.H., Neupane J., Lin Z. et al. Principles and applications of topography in precision agriculture // Advances in Agronomy. 2022. Vol. 171. P. 143-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.agron.2021.08.005.
20. Studnicki M., Macholdt J., Macdonald A. et al. Effects of Fertilizers and Manures on Temporal Yield Variability of Winter Rye // Agronomy 2021. V. 11. No. 3. P. 519. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11030519
21. Swapnil P., Meena M., Harish. Plant-Microbe Interaction - Recent Advances in Molecular and Biochemical Approaches // Agricultural Aspects of Microbiome Leading to Plant Defence. 2023. V. 2. https://doi.org/10.1016/C2021-0-00317-5

GOST	Ivanov D. TO THE QUESTION OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF WINTER RYE WITHIN THE AGROLANDSCAPE OF A MORAINE HILL // Vestnik of the Russian Agricultural Science. – 2025. – Issue number 3 C. 58-64 . URL: https://vestrsnras.ru/s3034519725030125-1/?version_id=108629. DOI: 10.7868/S3034519725030125
MLA	Ivanov, D. A "TO THE QUESTION OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF WINTER RYE WITHIN THE AGROLANDSCAPE OF A MORAINE HILL." Vestnik of the Russian Agricultural Science. 3 (2025).:58-64. DOI: 10.7868/S3034519725030125
APA	Ivanov D. (2025). TO THE QUESTION OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF WINTER RYE WITHIN THE AGROLANDSCAPE OF A MORAINE HILL. Vestnik of the Russian Agricultural Science. no. 3, pp.58-64 DOI: 10.7868/S3034519725030125

RAS Agricultural ScienceВестник российской сельскохозяйственной науки Vestnik of the Russian Agricultural Science

TO THE QUESTION OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF WINTER RYE WITHIN THE AGROLANDSCAPE OF A MORAINE HILL

You can

References

Индексирование

RAS Agricultural ScienceВестник российской сельскохозяйственной науки Vestnik of the Russian Agricultural Science

TO THE QUESTION OF FORECASTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF WINTER RYE WITHIN THE AGROLANDSCAPE OF A MORAINE HILL

You can

References

Индексирование

Via social network